Radar — 2026-10-09

The watch list is 150 names, covering filings and news since 6 October. Booking Holdings (FTC action reported over hotel ads) and Lululemon (new president and product chief) are the two buy-range names with business news. An AI-hardware sell-off on 8 October hit Nova, Monolithic Power, Celestica and EMCOR. It was market-wide, with no company-specific news found, so it moved price, not value (METHOD 7). This quarter's 13Fs show Buffett adding to Alphabet, Li Lu adding to PDD and Klarman adding to Amazon. Those are names to research, not decisions.

In buy range

• BKNG · WATCH · FTC reportedly preparing action over Priceline-affiliate hotel ads (more than $500M at stake, per sources) — A fine of that size is small against Booking's free cash flow, but a fee or impersonation case touches how it makes money. Check that the moat isn't built on misleading ads (METHOD 3) and whether the fix needs debt (event check 5). Not confirmed by the FTC; Booking disclosed the inquiry in August. · Reuters via Devdiscourse
• LULU · WATCH · New CEO O'Neill overhauls the C-suite: Athleta's CEO becomes President and Chief Product Officer, and the brand and supply-chain chiefs leave. — Product missteps and recalls are the problem being fixed. A one-time, solvable brand problem would make this an event (event checks 3–4). Leadership churn means a new team to judge on capital allocation and candour (METHOD 4, key-man risk). Read the next two quarters' calls before deciding. · 8-K · Retail Dive
• ADBE · WATCH · Headlines say Adobe was suspended from a Labor Department green-card (PERM) program — Unconfirmed. The only confirmed DOL suspension this year is Cloudera's, and a tracker shows Adobe's PERM cases on hold. Even if true, it is a hiring and regulatory issue, not a breach of the moat. · Gulte (PERM tracker)
• NVMI · NOISE · Fell 10% in a day with the semiconductor sell-off; no company news found — Price, not value (METHOD 7). Separately, the screen's $66k Ten Cap came from Nova's filing reporting its share count in thousands. That is fixed now: from Saturday's screen Nova shows above Sticker, not in buy range. · Quiver
• QFIN · NOISE · Down 9% over 5 days with US-listed Chinese ADRs — A market-wide move. Country and VIE risk is a standing checklist item for every China ADR (METHOD 2, the weather), not news.
• TBBK · WATCH · 8-K/A amending a director or officer change — Read the amendment to see who changed and why. A key-man change at a bank magnifies management risk (METHOD 4).

On deck and wonderful companies

• SMCI · WATCH · New director or officer change (8-K 5.02) — Given Super Micro's accounting history, any finance or audit leadership change deserves a read of the 8-K (METHOD 4: candour, cash must be real).
• SMID · WATCH · 13D/A amendment filed — An activist or large holder changed its position. Read the amendment for who and how much.
• MPWR, CLS, EME · NOISE · Fell 6–8% on 8 October in the AI-hardware sell-off; no company news — Market-wide (METHOD 7). All three trade above Sticker anyway.

Guru moves

13F report date 2026-06-30, except Pershing Square's latest, dated 2026-03-31. These lag up to ~45 days.

• Himalaya (Li Lu) added PDD (22.2% of the 13F) and BRK-B (15.0%). PDD is in buy range on the screen (tier C).
• Baupost (Klarman) added AMZN (16.5%) and GPC (6.1%), and opened CME (2.5%).
• Berkshire (Buffett) added GOOGL (9.4%), on deck and tier A on the screen, plus GOOG and DAL.
• Pershing Square (Ackman) opened MSFT (15.3%, Q1 13F), also on deck and tier A.

Quiet

No company news this week: KNSL, PGR, ACGL, CINF, NMIH, PLMR, IBKR (earnings next week), FUTU, DECK (Burry disclosed a new position), MELI, INTU, CRUS (small acquisition), ESEA, ELA.