RuleOne

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AMZN Amazon.com, Inc.

Nasdaq · Consumer Discretionary · Retail-Catalog & Mail-Order Houses · Market cap $2.71T · $251.52 on 2026-10-02

No StickerTier BFiscal-year data · FY2026

Price moves

1 week1%
1 month-3%
3 months4%
6 months20%
YTD2%
1 year15%
Off 52w high-12%
52w range$196–$287

Price history

Show year-end values
YearPrice
2016$37.49
2017$58.47
2018$75.10
2019$92.39
2020$162.85
2021$166.72
2022$84.00
2023$151.94
2024$219.39
2025$230.82
2026-10-02 (latest)$251.52

Analyst consensus 58 analysts · as of 2026-10-09 · the street vs Rule #1

Mixed Targets $230 low · $332 mean · $405 high (+32% to the mean)

Low
$230
Mean
$332
High
$405
Price
$252
Strong buy 16Buy 42Hold 2

Average rating 1.3 of 5 (1 = strong buy, 5 = sell) · strong buy · EPS growth next year 26% vs windage –

A price target is a 12-month price opinion, not a valuation. Rule #1 treats analysts as a lead and their growth as a ceiling (077, 093). Source: Yahoo Finance consensus.

Valuation

Buy (MOS) 50% of Sticker––
Ten Cap 10× owner earnings − net debt––
Payback Time 8-year FCF payback––
Sticker Rule #1 intrinsic value––
Methods agree price under how many of Ten Cap, Payback, MOS0 of 3
Windage growth g–
P/E · 10y median–65.1×
EPS FY2026–
FCF yield-0.4%
Dividend (TTM) · yield––
Total return per year, dividends reinvested · 5y · 10y8.7%21.1%
Revenue · net income last FY–$135.3B

Big Five 6/6 tests ≥10%

10y5y1y
ROIC13%13%20%
Sales growth–––
EPS growth–––
BVPS growth–––
OCF growth25%28%16%
Debt payoff (yrs of FCF)–

Events

Event scan (8-Ks, insider buys, 13Ds) runs for stocks that pass the quality screen.

SEC filings ·Yahoo Finance

Discussed on InvestED 8 episodes

  • 263 · Investing and Amazon
    Phil argues the next two years could be the best buying window of a lifetime, then values Amazon three ways (sticker price, payback time and 10 cap) to show why a wonderful company at $2,400 offers no margin of safety.
  • 125 · Disrupted: America's Grocery Industry
    On the day Amazon closed its Whole Foods purchase (Aug 28, 2017), Phil and Danielle use the price cuts and the sell-off in rival grocers to ask whether a brand is a durable moat, why a price moat can be undercut by a deeper-pocketed rival, and how a founder's values shaped who bought the company.
  • 192 · What Happened? Amazon and Whole Foods
    A year after the Amazon–Whole Foods deal, Phil and Danielle review their predictions, argue that one year proves little for a 10-year investment, and take a rough look at Kroger's price on a ten-cap basis while keeping the disruption thesis intact.
  • 116 · Amazon & Whole Foods
    A short episode recorded from Honduras and Switzerland on Amazon's agreed purchase of Whole Foods: how the brand and "secret" moats were eroded by competitors, how an activist fund's pressure led founder John Mackey to seek a friendly buyer, and why Phil sees a clash between a long-term mission and
  • 120 · The Investing Strategy that Never Goes Out of Style
    Buffett and Munger, in their 90s, still wait patiently in cash for a wonderful business on sale, which Phil says is why a patient individual can beat institutions, and the rest of the episode discusses Amazon's possible reasons for buying Whole Foods before a promised return to the margin-of-safety
  • 112 · Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meeting & Apple Stock
    Phil and Danielle go through the 2017 Berkshire meeting (Phil watched the live stream): why book value understates Berkshire, why Buffett won't promise to buy the stock at a set price, how he now sees Apple and IBM, what he and Munger missed in Amazon and Google, and a CEO-polling trick for sizing u
  • 212 · Berkshire Annual Meeting 2019 Recap (Part 1)
    Recorded in Omaha, Phil and Danielle describe the Berkshire weekend, correct the "Buffett buys Amazon" headlines, explain "old Buffett" versus "new Buffett", and give their reading of why Berkshire holds so much cash and isn't buying back more stock. The readings of Buffett's reasons are their own i
  • 380 · FAANGM Stocks
    After Netflix, Phil and Danielle turn to the big-tech group (Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Alphabet, Microsoft), then Phil breaks Google's revenue into its parts to show why its search business is about as close to a monopoly as it gets, setting up the question of why the stock is down 30%.

Radar news and filings, judged against the event rules

Held by: Pershing Square (Bill Ackman) 17.4% of 13F · Baupost (Seth Klarman) 16.5% of 13F (added) · Markel (Tom Gayner) 3.7% of 13F as of 2026-03-31. 13Fs lag up to 45 days and show names, not decisions.

Research