Weekly brief: 2026-10-09

The screen shows 13 BUY, 68 BUY* and 38 ON DECK names, but the three dossiers written this week (ADBE, KNSL, LULU) all say WATCH. Each screen "buy" rested on 15% growth or on cash-flow tests that flatter the number, and on corrected figures none is at tranche 1 yet. Nothing is actionable today; the week is about price levels to wait for and KNSL's Q3 report on 22 Oct.

Top actions

• LULU: review story. Price $92.68 vs tranche 1 $90 (3% away). New CEO has reshuffled the C-suite. Not yet a buy. dossier, radar
• KNSL: hold; review after Q3 on 22 Oct. Price $339.65 vs tranche 1 $280. dossier
• ADBE: hold. Price $241.05 vs tranche 1 $225; CEO handover on 1 Dec and interim CFO. dossier
• BKNG: review story. Reported FTC action over affiliate hotel ads; no dossier yet. radar

Conflicts resolved

• ADBE: resolved for the analyst. Screen Sticker $537 assumes 15% growth; at 10% it is ~$230 (METHOD 5).
• KNSL: resolved for the analyst. Screen uses OCF (includes insurer float) and GAAP EPS with investment gains; on normalised EPS ~$22 and 10% growth Sticker is ~$282 (METHOD 5).
• LULU: resolved for the analyst. TTM EPS $12.15 is flattered by a tariff refund; underlying ~$8.74 gives Sticker ~$46, not $364 (METHOD 5).

New and departing names

• Entered: none. Left: none.
• ZTO moved from ON DECK to BUY (tier B, $19.50). No dossier yet; reason for the move not checked.

Radar this week

No PROBLEMs. Events and watch items:

• LULU: CEO overhauls the C-suite; Athleta CEO becomes President and Chief Product Officer. Judge on capital allocation and candour (METHOD 4).
• BKNG: FTC reportedly preparing action over ads ($500M+). Small against FCF but touches the model; unconfirmed.
• ADBE: unconfirmed reports of a green-card (PERM) suspension. Hiring issue, not a moat breach.
• SMCI: officer change 8-K; read the finance and audit roles given its history.
• TBBK: 8-K/A on a director/officer change. SMID: 13D/A filed.

Guru moves

Names to research, not decisions (13Fs lag up to ~45 days):

• Li Lu added PDD and BRK-B.
• Klarman added AMZN and GPC; opened CME.
• Buffett added GOOGL.
• Ackman opened MSFT (Q1 13F).

Coming up

• KNSL 22 Oct (dossier name; Q3 is the key check)
• BYD and DECK 29 Oct, PTC 30 Oct (BUY or BUY*, no dossier)
• Also BUY*: LRN 14 Oct, TRV 16 Oct, PHM 21 Oct, DHI and ENVA 22 Oct, RLI and HRB 23 Oct, CINF 26 Oct, CB and MCRI 27 Oct

Decisions for you

1. LULU: start tranche 1 at $90 if price reaches it, or wait for proof the US sales fix works?
2. KNSL: keep buying stopped above $280 until Q3 (22 Oct)?
3. ADBE: accept $225 as the stop-buy given the unresolved CEO and AI story?

Research, not investment advice.