In one sentence: A rerun of 128, recorded in 2017, replayed because Tesla was again in the news; read that note for the full argument. Only the framing is new.
Key ideas
- Rerun. The body of the episode is 128 played again, with the stock then near $389 and a market value of about $65 billion (figures as stated in 2017, not 2019). [01:00–31:00]
- What's new. Danielle's short 2019 intro says Tesla has again moved up and down and "the same questions are still out there", and asks listeners to judge whether the 2017 view held up. [00:00–01:00]
- Still the core test. The question carried over is whether Tesla's price has anything to do with the value of the business, which the original answers with: no earnings, no ten-year record, so it is too hard to price. See 128 for the arithmetic. [19:00–27:00]
- Follow-up. The next episodes, 221 and 222, check the 2017 view against what happened.
How it maps to RuleOne
- Same as 128: a stock page with negative or very short earnings history can't produce a sticker price, which is the screen saying "too hard".
Buffett, Munger and Graham links
- See 128.
Words to know
- Rerun ("From the Vault"): an older episode replayed with a new introduction.
Try this
Before listening to 221, write down what you think happened to Tesla's price after the 2017 recording, then compare it with the figures Phil gives there.
Check yourself
- What is new in this episode compared with 128?
Answer
Only Danielle's 2019 introduction; the rest is the 2017 episode replayed.
Short quotes
"Tesla is back in the news for having been again, up and down, and the same questions are still out there." (Danielle, ~00:30, auto-transcribed)