LAD Lithia Motors, Inc.
NYSE · Consumer Discretionary · Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations · Market cap $6.7B · $290.24 on 2026-10-09
cash not real: owner earnings < 75% of net incomedebt > 3 years of FCFROIC falling: check capital allocation
Price moves
Price and total return
Show year-end values
| Year | Price | Dividend-adjusted |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $96.83 | $89.48 |
| 2017 | $113.59 | $106.08 |
| 2018 | $76.33 | $72.18 |
| 2019 | $147.00 | $140.43 |
| 2020 | $292.67 | $281.88 |
| 2021 | $296.95 | $287.07 |
| 2022 | $204.74 | $199.15 |
| 2023 | $329.28 | $322.69 |
| 2024 | $357.43 | $352.75 |
| 2025 | $332.33 | $330.38 |
| 2026-10-09 (latest) | $290.24 | $290.24 |
Dividend-adjusted values are back-adjusted to today's price: the gap to the price column is the value of dividends reinvested since then.
$145
$291
$290
Analyst consensus 15 analysts · as of 2026-10-10 · the street vs Rule #1
Street agrees Targets $310 low · $434 mean · $525 high (+49% to the mean)
Rule #1 price and the street both say cheap.
$310
$434
$525
$145
$291
$290
Average rating 1.8 of 5 (1 = strong buy, 5 = sell) · buy · EPS growth next year 16% vs windage 13.6%
- 2026-10-07 UBS kept Neutral, target $440→$335
- 2026-10-06 JP Morgan kept Neutral, target $340→$320
- 2026-10-06 Barclays kept Overweight, target $415→$375
- 2026-10-05 Morgan Stanley kept Equal-Weight, target $358→$310
A price target is a 12-month price opinion, not a valuation. Rule #1 treats analysts as a lead and their growth as a ceiling (077, 093). Source: Yahoo Finance consensus.
Valuation
| Buy (MOS) 50% of Sticker | $145.47 | -50% |
|---|---|---|
| Ten Cap 10× owner earnings − net debt | – | – |
| Payback Time 8-year FCF payback | – | – |
| Sticker Rule #1 intrinsic value | $290.93 | 0% |
| Methods agree price under how many of Ten Cap, Payback, MOS | 0 of 3 | |
| Windage growth g | 13.6% | |
| Future P/E (min 2g, 10y median) | 10.9× | |
| P/E · 10y median | 9.6× | 10.9× |
| EPS TTM 2026-06-30 | $30.20 | |
| FCF yield | -7.5% | |
| Dividend (TTM) · yield | $2.37 | 0.8% |
| Dividend growth 5y, per year | 12.4% | |
| Total return per year, dividends reinvested · 5y · 10y | -1.2% | 13.2% |
| Revenue · net income last FY | $37.6B | $820M |
Big Five 9/15 tests ≥10%
| 10y | 5y | 1y | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 13% | 11% | 7% |
| Sales growth | 17% | 23% | 4% |
| EPS growth | 17% | 11% | 10% |
| BVPS growth | 24% | 19% | 6% |
| OCF growth | 16% | -8% | -16% |
| Debt payoff (yrs of FCF) | 1668.8 |
Events
-34% off 52w high; 8-K: 2026-09-25: 5.02 Director/officer change; next report ~2026-10-28
Next report ≈ 2026-10-28 · SEC filings ·Yahoo Finance
Wonderful-business markers 40% of known markers passed · what these mean
- ROIC ≥10% in 8 of 10 yearsfailed
- ROIC not fallingfailed
- Sales, profit and cash flow growing togetherpassed
- Stable margins (pricing power)passed
- FCF ≥10% of revenuefailed
- Cash is real (owner earnings ≥75% of profit)failed
- Debt ≤2 years of FCFfailed
- No share dilutionfailed
- Revenue up in 8 of 10 yearspassed
- Held up in 2020passed
Across screen runs
| Run | Price | Sticker | Buy (MOS) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | $290.24 | $290.93 | $145.47 | ON DECK |
| 2026-10-04 | $307.77 | $290.93 | $145.47 | ABOVE STICKER |
Research
- Weekly brief: 2026-10-10 2026-10-10