CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
NYSE · Consumer Discretionary · Retail-Eating Places · Market cap $40.9B · $32.36 on 2026-10-02
Below Sticker (fails quality screen)Tier CFiscal-year data · FY2025
Price moves
1 week3%
1 month-12%
3 months-9%
6 months-2%
YTD-19%
1 year-23%
Off 52w high-24%
52w range$28–$43
Price history
Show year-end values
| Year | Price |
|---|---|
| 2016 | $7.55 |
| 2017 | $5.78 |
| 2018 | $8.64 |
| 2019 | $16.74 |
| 2020 | $27.73 |
| 2021 | $34.97 |
| 2022 | $27.75 |
| 2023 | $45.74 |
| 2024 | $60.30 |
| 2025 | $37.00 |
| 2026-10-02 (latest) | $32.36 |
Ten Cap
$11
$11
Buy (MOS)
$17
$17
Payback Time
$18
$18
Sticker
$33
$33
Price
$32
$32
Valuation
| Buy (MOS) 50% of Sticker | $16.54 | -49% |
|---|---|---|
| Ten Cap 10× owner earnings − net debt | $11.44 | -65% |
| Payback Time 8-year FCF payback | $17.88 | -45% |
| Sticker Rule #1 intrinsic value | $33.09 | 2% |
| Methods agree price under how many of Ten Cap, Payback, MOS | 0 of 3 | |
| Windage growth g | 14.8% | |
| P/E · 10y median | 28.4× | 54.1× |
| EPS FY2025 | $1.14 | |
| FCF yield | 3.5% | |
| Dividend (TTM) · yield | – | – |
| Total return per year, dividends reinvested · 5y · 10y | -2.3% | 15.2% |
| Revenue · net income last FY | $11.9B | $1.5B |
Big Five 8/14 tests ≥10%
| 10y | 5y | 1y | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 26% | 39% | 52% |
| Sales growth | – | 15% | 5% |
| EPS growth | 14% | 35% | 3% |
| BVPS growth | 5% | 8% | -21% |
| OCF growth | 12% | 26% | 0% |
| Debt payoff (yrs of FCF) | 0.0 |
Events
Event scan (8-Ks, insider buys, 13Ds) runs for stocks that pass the quality screen.
Discussed on InvestED 8 episodes
- 040 · Is Now a Good Time to Buy Chipotle?Phil teaches value by analogy (a foreclosed farm and building bought at a 10% cash return), then walks through the Chipotle E. coli crisis as an "event": great company, fear-driven institutional selling, price still above his estimate of value.
- 044 · Understanding Chipotle's Value (Part 2)Phil argues you should let your values veto a purchase (without paying extra for virtue), then starts valuing Chipotle with four inputs, beginning with trailing EPS and an earnings growth rate that he stress-tests against store counts.
- 362 · Inflation Proof CompaniesInflation is a pricing problem, so the companies that hold up are those with a moat wide enough to raise prices without losing customers, or to cut them and still profit. Phil tests it with Chipotle and the last recession.
- 043 · Understanding Chipotle's ValuePhil builds a "story" for Chipotle in order: Radar (is any smart value investor buying? almost none), then understand (moat and management scored through ROE, ROIC, debt and four growth rates), with a reminder that a falling price isn't a falling value.
- 127 · You’ll Never Know Until the Tide Goes OutPhil sets two cases side by side: Sears Holdings, a possible "$90 for $8" asset play whose fate rests on two large holders (so it goes in the too-hard box), and Chipotle, where a founder-CEO, no debt and a recovering event make him comfortable buying, and ends with a checklist for judging management
- 250 · Events (Part 2)Answering a listener's question about where to find events, Phil says most come from front-page news or a recession putting a watch list on sale, then works through four past events (Burlington Northern, Gildan, BP's Macondo well, Chipotle) to show how he judged each as not terminal.
- 493 · EventingWhen a company you already own has an event, ask the same question you'd ask before buying: is this a temporary problem that resolves in one to three years (stay or buy more), or has it changed the story (sell, even if the stock may recover)?
- 169 · Options Review & Listener QuestionsPhil answers a listener's question on 100-share contracts, shows how his Chipotle collar behaved after a 9% drop, warns again that options are a racehorse, and Danielle notes how calm owning a business she understands felt.