RULERS weekly memo · 2026-10-17
Research for one investor's own use. Not investment advice.
Scope this run
The input listed 11 names (ADBE, KNSL, LULU, TTD, OPFI, QFIN, BRBR, FUTU, INTU, PGR, ELA). I finished one dossier properly (ADBE) rather than many badly. The other ten keep last week's dossiers unchanged and are first in line next run.
Verdicts
| Ticker | Verdict | Conf. | Price | Tranche 1 | Methods agree | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE | WATCH | 3/5 | $245.20 | $225 | 3 on screen (2 on corrected numbers) | Cheap on cash flow, but Q3 net new ARR fell ~36–38% and two downgrades land on the AI question |
| KNSL, LULU, TTD, OPFI, QFIN, BRBR, FUTU, INTU, PGR, ELA | not updated | See their dossiers dated earlier |
What changed since last week (ADBE)
- Wells Fargo cut to Underweight ($225) and HSBC to Hold ($267). Reports say net new ARR fell about 36–38% year on year in Q3 and RPO growth slowed to 8%; management blames its freemium push.
- Price rose from $241 to $245; tranche 1 ($225) is not triggered.
- Added the street line and the per-marker line (9 of 10 pass), and made sell triggers measurable, as the Professor's review asked.
Data issues found
- The screen's ADBE Sticker ($537) and Payback ($415) assume 15% growth. Street EPS growth is 17% this year and 12% next, but 5-year EPS growth is 9%. I kept 10% and showed 9% (~$189).
- ADBE owner earnings add back stock compensation; the amount is still unconfirmed. The 10-K was not re-read.
- The press disagrees on Wells Fargo's prior rating (Overweight vs Equal Weight). I did not resolve it.
- Not yet implemented (METHOD proposals): lenders (OPFI, QFIN) still show meaningless Payback/Ten Cap, and negative street EPS growth is not capping windage.
Five lines for the owner
- Only ADBE was refreshed this week; the other ten dossiers are stale by one cycle.
- ADBE stays WATCH: the numbers are strong, but the AI-monetisation test has a weak new datapoint.
- The next check is Q4 net new ARR and FY27 guidance (~22 Dec) under the new CEO (1 Dec).
- Buy levels are unchanged at $225 / $180 / $140; the price is above all of them.
- Nothing here is a recommendation; verify against the filings.