RULERS weekly memo, 10 Oct 2026
Research, not investment advice. Prices are 9 Oct 2026 closes. Facts come mostly from search summaries of earnings releases; 10-Ks and proxies were not re-read this run.
Verdicts
| Ticker | Verdict | Confidence | Price | Tranche 1 | Methods agree (screen → corrected) | One-line reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPFI | TOO HARD | 2/5 | $5.93 | $5.00 | 3 → n/a | Subprime lender; the screen's cash-flow prices ignore cash lent out; guidance cut in August |
| QFIN | TOO HARD | 2/5 | $6.20 | $5.00 | 3 → n/a | China lender; Q2 net income −77%, Q3 guided down similarly; changed story and country risk |
| BRBR | WATCH | 3/5 | $8.55 | $7.00 | 3 → 0–1 | Strong brand, but EBITDA margin squeezed to ~12% and net debt ~3.8x EBITDA; wait for Q4 and FY27 guide |
Not done this run: LULU, KNSL and ADBE were updated yesterday and are unchanged. INTU, FUTU, PGR and ELA were selected but not analysed (time); they are first in line next run.
What changed since last week
- Three new dossiers (OPFI, QFIN, BRBR). The rest of the list is carried over unchanged.
- The screen's BUY list is now mostly names that have fallen 49–78% on falling earnings, so the screen's TTM-based prices are stale for each of them.
Data issues found
- OPFI and QFIN (lenders): OCF excludes the cash lent out, so FCF, Payback and Ten Cap are overstated (OPFI FCF margin 106%). OPFI's 10-year Sticker has no 5-year EPS growth; its windage comes from revenue. Debt shows only $50M (OPFI) and $37M (QFIN) and likely omits funding debt.
- QFIN: TTM EPS ($4.38) predates the Q2 collapse; ADS = 2 shares and CNY conversion make per-share figures hard to check. Search sources conflicted on the share reaction (12% vs 19%); not used.
- BRBR: TTM owner earnings ($287M) precede the FY26 margin cut; share count in the screen (~118M) differs from the 128.5M in the FY25 history. Cause of the 76% fall was not found in sources.
- All three: the screen's
markersuse thin history for recent listings (OPFI, BRBR), leaving several markers unknown.
Five lines for the owner
- Three of the ten selected names were done: OPFI and QFIN are TOO HARD, BRBR is WATCH. None is a BUY, so no new deep-dive config was created.
- The screen's "3 methods agree" is not reliable for lenders: operating cash flow ignores the loans.
- QFIN is the cheapest on paper (~3x run-rate earnings) but the story changed; China risk and Alibaba (LESSONS) argue against it.
- BRBR is the best business of the three; watch the November Q4 report and the FY27 guide, and net debt/EBITDA below ~3x.
- INTU, FUTU, PGR and ELA move to the front of next week's queue.