Model output: PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR), price $210.31 as of 2026-10-02
Financial snapshot (SEC XBRL; FY = fiscal year, TTM through 2026-06-30)
| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $49.6B | $62.1B | $75.4B | $87.7B | $91.1B |
| Gross profit | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Operating income | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | $15.1B |
| Net income | $0.7B | $3.9B | $8.5B | $11.3B | $11.7B |
| Operating cash flow | $6.8B | $10.6B | $15.1B | $17.5B | $16.3B |
| CapEx | $0.3B | $0.3B | $0.3B | $0.3B | $0.4B |
| Free cash flow | $6.6B | $10.4B | $14.8B | $17.2B | $16.0B |
| Diluted EPS | $1.18 | $6.58 | $14.40 | $19.23 | $19.93 |
Balance sheet (latest): cash $0.2B, debt $2.7B, equity $34.3B; diluted shares 0.586B; market cap $123.2B; EV $125.6B.
WACC: Rf 5.3% (10y UST, ^TNX) + β 0.80 (raw 5y monthly vs S&P 500 0.24; Blume-adjusted) × ERP 4.5% = Ke 8.9%. Kd 5.8% pre-tax × (1 − 20.9%) = 4.6%. Weights E 97.9% / D 2.1% → WACC 8.8%.
DCF (10-yr, mid-year convention) — $B
| Yr | Revenue | Growth | EBIT margin | NOPAT | D&A | CapEx | ΔNWC | FCF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 95.6 | 5.0% | 13.0% | 9.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 8.5 | 8.1 |
| 2 | 102.3 | 7.0% | 12.7% | 10.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 8.3 | 7.3 |
| 3 | 110.5 | 8.0% | 12.4% | 10.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 8.4 | 6.8 |
| 4 | 119.3 | 8.0% | 12.2% | 11.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 8.8 | 6.6 |
| 5 | 127.7 | 7.0% | 11.9% | 12.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 9.5 | 6.5 |
| 6 | 136.0 | 6.5% | 11.6% | 12.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 10.0 | 6.3 |
| 7 | 144.1 | 6.0% | 11.3% | 12.9 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 10.5 | 6.1 |
| 8 | 151.3 | 5.0% | 11.1% | 13.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 11.1 | 5.9 |
| 9 | 158.2 | 4.5% | 10.8% | 13.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 11.4 | 5.6 |
| 10 | 164.5 | 4.0% | 10.5% | 13.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 11.8 | 5.3 |
PV of FCF $64.5B. Terminal value — perpetuity (g = 3.0%): TV $209.5B, PV $90.2B → EV $154.7B → $259.96/share (implies 11.7x terminal EBITDA). Exit multiple (10.0x EBITDA): TV $179.3B, PV $77.2B → EV $141.7B → $237.75/share (implies g = 2.1%). Net debt $2.5B.
Sensitivity, perpetuity method ($/share): rows WACC, columns terminal g
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | $278 | $295 | $315 | $340 | $372 |
| 8.3% | $255 | $269 | $285 | $304 | $328 |
| 8.8% | $236 | $247 | $260 | $275 | $294 |
| 9.3% | $219 | $228 | $239 | $251 | $266 |
| 9.8% | $205 | $212 | $221 | $231 | $243 |
Comparable companies (TTM; forward P/E uses next-FY consensus EPS supplied in config)
| Company | Price | Mkt cap | P/E TTM | P/E fwd | EV/EBITDA | P/S | P/FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGR | $210.31 | $123.2B | 10.6x | 12.8x | 8.2x | 1.4x | 7.7x |
| ALL | $223.74 | $58.4B | 4.5x | n/a | 4.7x | 0.8x | 4.8x |
| TRV | $360.38 | $77.8B | 9.7x | n/a | 19.6x | 1.6x | 7.1x |
| CB | $330.89 | $130.6B | 11.7x | 11.8x | 9.6x | 2.1x | 8.6x |
| HIG | $126.05 | $35.1B | 8.2x | n/a | 18.4x | 1.2x | 6.0x |
| CINF | $161.95 | $25.3B | 7.6x | n/a | 5.7x | 1.8x | 7.4x |
| WRB | $68.98 | $27.1B | 14.2x | 13.5x | 9.9x | 1.8x | 7.7x |
| Peer median | 8.9x | 12.6x | 9.7x | 1.7x | 7.3x | ||
| Peer mean | 9.3x | 12.6x | 11.3x | 1.6x | 6.9x | ||
| Peer low | 4.5x | 11.8x | 4.7x | 0.8x | 4.8x | ||
| Peer high | 14.2x | 13.5x | 19.6x | 2.1x | 8.6x |
Implied value per share from peer multiples:
| Multiple | Low | Median | Mean | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | $89.29 | $177.81 | $185.58 | $282.87 |
| P/E fwd | $192.73 | $206.99 | $206.99 | $221.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | $118.77 | $251.92 | $293.23 | $509.84 |
| P/S | $129.41 | $264.59 | $243.59 | $333.80 |
| P/FCF | $129.81 | $197.55 | $188.35 | $234.03 |
Dividends: DPS history FY2016 $0.68, FY2017 $1.12, FY2018 $2.51, FY2019 $2.65, FY2020 $4.90, FY2021 $1.90, FY2022 $0.40, FY2023 $1.15, FY2024 $4.90, FY2025 $13.90. 5y DPS CAGR 23.2%, 10y n/a; payout 33.4% of TTM EPS. Ke 8.9%. Gordon (D0 $6.65, g 3.5%): $128.00; two-stage (10y at 7.0%, then 3.5%): $168.08.
Rule #1 Big Five (10y / 5y / 1y): ROIC 22.9% / 22.5% / 37.3%; Sales 15.4% / 15.5% / 16.3%; EPS 24.5% / 14.8% / 33.5%; BVPS 15.3% / 12.2% / 18.4%; OCF 22.6% / 20.5% / 16.1%. Tests passed 15/15. LT debt / FCF = 0.00 yrs.
Sticker Price: EPS $19.93 × (1 + 12.0%)^10 = $61.90 × future P/E 18.2 (min of 2×g = 24.0 and 10y median P/E 18.16; avg 26.72) = $1,123.84 ÷ 1.15^10 = $277.80; MOS (50%) $138.90. Payback-Time (8y) price $375.23; Ten Cap price $272.39. Data-driven windage growth was 15.0%.