Model output: KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP, INC. (KNSL), price $329.72 as of 2026-10-02
Financial snapshot (SEC XBRL; FY = fiscal year, TTM through 2026-06-30)
| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.8B | $1.2B | $1.6B | $1.9B | $2.0B |
| Gross profit | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Operating income | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | $0.7B |
| Net income | $0.2B | $0.3B | $0.4B | $0.5B | $0.6B |
| Operating cash flow | $0.6B | $0.9B | $1.0B | $1.0B | $1.0B |
| CapEx | $0.0B | $0.0B | $0.0B | $0.1B | $0.0B |
| Free cash flow | $0.6B | $0.9B | $1.0B | $1.0B | $1.0B |
| Diluted EPS | $6.88 | $13.22 | $17.78 | $21.65 | $24.64 |
Balance sheet (latest): cash $0.2B, debt $0.2B, equity $2.0B; diluted shares 0.023B; market cap $7.6B; EV $7.6B.
WACC: Rf 5.3% (10y UST, ^TNX) + β 0.88 (raw 5y monthly vs S&P 500 0.83; Blume-adjusted) × ERP 4.5% = Ke 9.8%. Kd 5.4% pre-tax × (1 − 20.3%) = 4.3%. Weights E 97.1% / D 2.9% → WACC 9.6%.
DCF (10-yr, mid-year convention) — $B
| Yr | Revenue | Growth | EBIT margin | NOPAT | D&A | CapEx | ΔNWC | FCF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.1 | 4.0% | 33.0% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 8.0% | 32.3% | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 11.0% | 31.7% | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 12.0% | 31.0% | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 3.1 | 11.0% | 30.3% | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 6 | 3.4 | 10.0% | 29.7% | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 7 | 3.7 | 8.0% | 29.0% | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 8 | 3.9 | 7.0% | 28.3% | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 9 | 4.2 | 6.0% | 27.7% | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 10 | 4.4 | 5.0% | 27.0% | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
PV of FCF $4.0B. Terminal value — perpetuity (g = 3.0%): TV $13.1B, PV $5.2B → EV $9.2B → $401.71/share (implies 10.7x terminal EBITDA). Exit multiple (11.0x EBITDA): TV $13.5B, PV $5.4B → EV $9.4B → $408.65/share (implies g = 3.2%). Net debt $0.0B.
Sensitivity, perpetuity method ($/share): rows WACC, columns terminal g
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $429 | $451 | $476 | $507 | $544 |
| 9.1% | $397 | $415 | $436 | $460 | $490 |
| 9.6% | $370 | $385 | $402 | $422 | $445 |
| 10.1% | $346 | $358 | $372 | $389 | $408 |
| 10.6% | $325 | $335 | $347 | $361 | $377 |
Comparable companies (TTM; forward P/E uses next-FY consensus EPS supplied in config)
| Company | Price | Mkt cap | P/E TTM | P/E fwd | EV/EBITDA | P/S | P/FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KNSL | $329.72 | $7.6B | 13.4x | 15.3x | 10.4x | 3.8x | 7.6x |
| RLI | $55.94 | $5.2B | 11.8x | n/a | 9.6x | 2.6x | 10.0x |
| WRB | $68.98 | $27.1B | 14.2x | 13.5x | 9.9x | 1.8x | 7.7x |
| MKL | $1,737.18 | $21.9B | 9.6x | n/a | 6.7x | 1.4x | 10.4x |
| PLMR | $126.49 | $3.4B | 17.0x | n/a | 13.1x | 3.2x | 8.3x |
| SKWD | $55.01 | $2.5B | 12.8x | n/a | 8.6x | 1.4x | 6.2x |
| ACGL | $93.60 | $33.2B | 7.3x | n/a | 6.0x | 1.7x | 5.5x |
| Peer median | 12.3x | 13.5x | 9.1x | 1.8x | 8.0x | ||
| Peer mean | 12.1x | 13.5x | 9.0x | 2.0x | 8.0x | ||
| Peer low | 7.3x | 13.5x | 6.0x | 1.4x | 5.5x | ||
| Peer high | 17.0x | 13.5x | 13.1x | 3.2x | 10.4x |
Implied value per share from peer multiples:
| Multiple | Low | Median | Mean | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | $180.46 | $302.40 | $298.36 | $418.91 |
| P/E fwd | $290.50 | $290.50 | $290.50 | $290.50 |
| EV/EBITDA | $191.68 | $289.60 | $285.87 | $417.49 |
| P/S | $123.18 | $154.36 | $176.66 | $274.60 |
| P/FCF | $239.06 | $348.34 | $349.29 | $452.26 |
Dividends: DPS history FY2018 $0.28, FY2019 $0.32, FY2020 $0.36, FY2021 $0.44, FY2022 $0.52, FY2023 $0.56, FY2024 $0.60, FY2025 $0.68. 5y DPS CAGR 13.6%, 10y n/a; payout 2.8% of TTM EPS. Ke 9.8%. Gordon (D0 $0.68, g 4.0%): $12.29; two-stage (10y at 12.0%, then 4.0%): $22.65.
Rule #1 Big Five (10y / 5y / 1y): ROIC 17.6% / 21.9% / 23.1%; Sales 37.0% / 32.4% / 18.0%; EPS n/a / 41.1% / 21.8%; BVPS n/a / 27.3% / 32.5%; OCF 29.5% / 30.1% / 6.9%. Tests passed 12/13. LT debt / FCF = 0.23 yrs.
Sticker Price: EPS $24.64 × (1 + 13.0%)^10 = $83.64 × future P/E 26.0 (min of 2×g = 26.0 and 10y median P/E 37.18; avg 34.52) = $2,174.70 ÷ 1.15^10 = $537.55; MOS (50%) $268.78. Payback-Time (8y) price $629.42; Ten Cap price $436.62. Data-driven windage growth was 15.0%.