Model output: Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU), price $102.17 as of 2026-10-02
Basis: reports in HKD, converted at 7.846 HKD/USD; ADR: 1 ADS = 8 shares; EPS from yahoo TTM to 2026-06-30. All figures USD, per listed share; history converted at each fiscal year-end rate.
Financial snapshot (SEC XBRL; FY = fiscal year, TTM through 2025-12-31)
| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.7B | $2.9B | $2.9B |
| Gross profit | $0.8B | $1.1B | $1.4B | $2.5B | $2.5B |
| Operating income | $0.5B | $0.6B | $0.8B | $1.8B | $1.8B |
| Net income | $0.4B | $0.5B | $0.7B | $1.5B | $1.4B |
| Operating cash flow | $0.4B | $-0.8B | $4.0B | $5.2B | $5.2B |
| CapEx | $0.0B | $0.0B | $0.0B | $0.0B | $0.0B |
| Free cash flow | $0.4B | $-0.8B | $4.0B | $5.2B | $5.2B |
| Diluted EPS | $2.59 | $3.91 | $4.99 | $10.27 | $10.02 |
Balance sheet (latest): cash $1.3B, debt $0.0B, equity $5.1B; diluted shares 0.141B; market cap $14.4B; EV $13.1B.
WACC: Rf 5.3% (10y UST, ^TNX) + β 1.30 (raw 5y monthly vs S&P 500 0.69; Blume-adjusted) × ERP 4.5% = Ke 11.1%. Kd 6.0% pre-tax × (1 − 17.2%) = 5.0%. Weights E 100.0% / D 0.0% → WACC 11.1%.
DCF (10-yr, mid-year convention) — $B
| Yr | Revenue | Growth | EBIT margin | NOPAT | D&A | CapEx | ΔNWC | FCF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.5 | 20.0% | 45.0% | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 17.0% | 44.2% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 14.0% | 43.4% | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 12.0% | 42.7% | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| 5 | 5.7 | 10.0% | 41.9% | 2.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 6 | 6.3 | 9.0% | 41.1% | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 7 | 6.8 | 8.0% | 40.3% | 2.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 8 | 7.2 | 7.0% | 39.6% | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 9 | 7.7 | 6.0% | 38.8% | 2.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 10 | 8.0 | 5.0% | 38.0% | 2.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
PV of FCF $11.0B. Terminal value — perpetuity (g = 3.0%): TV $30.6B, PV $10.7B → EV $21.6B → $162.49/share (implies 9.7x terminal EBITDA). Exit multiple (10.0x EBITDA): TV $31.4B, PV $10.9B → EV $21.9B → $164.47/share (implies g = 3.2%). Net debt $-1.3B.
Sensitivity, perpetuity method ($/share): rows WACC, columns terminal g
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.1% | $172 | $178 | $185 | $192 | $201 |
| 10.6% | $162 | $167 | $173 | $179 | $186 |
| 11.1% | $154 | $158 | $162 | $168 | $174 |
| 11.6% | $146 | $149 | $153 | $158 | $163 |
| 12.1% | $139 | $142 | $145 | $149 | $153 |
Comparable companies (TTM; forward P/E uses next-FY consensus EPS supplied in config)
| Company | Price | Mkt cap | P/E TTM | P/E fwd | EV/EBITDA | P/S | P/FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FUTU | $102.17 | $14.4B | 10.2x | 10.8x | 7.3x | 5.0x | 2.8x |
| IBKR | $88.30 | $39.7B | 35.0x | n/a | 3.5x | 14.5x | 2.5x |
| SCHW | $96.70 | $168.7B | 134.7x | n/a | 7.3x | 6.5x | 15.6x |
| HOOD | $112.74 | $102.9B | 49.9x | n/a | 38.9x | 20.9x | 427.1x |
| LPLA | $316.44 | $25.4B | 25.4x | n/a | 14.4x | 1.3x | n/a |
| RJF | $158.21 | $31.5B | 13.8x | n/a | 4.7x | 1.9x | 21.8x |
| Peer median | 35.0x | n/a | 7.3x | 6.5x | 15.6x | ||
| Peer mean | 51.8x | n/a | 13.8x | 9.0x | 13.3x | ||
| Peer low | 13.8x | n/a | 3.5x | 1.3x | 2.5x | ||
| Peer high | 134.7x | n/a | 38.9x | 20.9x | 21.8x |
Implied value per share from peer multiples:
| Multiple | Low | Median | Mean | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | $138.25 | $351.20 | $518.71 | $1,349.95 |
| EV/EBITDA | $53.96 | $102.11 | $185.18 | $506.28 |
| P/S | $26.67 | $133.57 | $185.56 | $429.92 |
| P/FCF | $91.54 | $574.42 | $489.42 | $802.28 |
Dividends: no common dividend; DDM not applicable.
Rule #1 Big Five (10y / 5y / 1y): ROIC 16.8% / 19.0% / 29.1%; Sales n/a / 47.2% / 68.1%; EPS n/a / 51.4% / 106.4%; BVPS n/a / 34.9% / 41.5%; OCF n/a / 14.8% / 31.6%. Tests passed 11/11. LT debt / FCF = 0.00 yrs.
Sticker Price: EPS $10.02 × (1 + 15.0%)^10 = $40.55 × future P/E 19.4 (min of 2×g = 30.0 and 10y median P/E 19.37; avg 32.70) = $785.38 ÷ 1.15^10 = $194.13; MOS (50%) $97.07. Payback-Time (8y) price $579.77; Ten Cap price $367.27. Data-driven windage growth was 15.0%.