In one sentence: A rerun of 084, the first Guy Spier conversation, introduced by Danielle with news of a three-week break and a few new items; see 084 for the main notes.
What's new in this airing
- A three-week hiatus. Phil and Danielle are working on a project they can't yet name, so the three Spier interviews are replayed. [00:00–01:00]
- Berkshire's 2017 annual meeting. Danielle highlights reports that Buffett said he missed Google and Amazon because he did not understand tech. She wants to discuss with Phil whether value investors need to take tech seriously. This is her framing and not a quote from the meeting. [01:00–03:00]
- Book club. There's no formal list yet, but Misbehaving by Richard Thaler is the current read (see 108). [03:00–04:00]
- Talks at Google. Kahneman's talk is on the "Talks at Google" YouTube channel. [04:00]
Key ideas (see 084 for detail)
- Munger's four filters are "simple but not easy". Guy adds a fifth: forgive yourself for mistakes so you keep going. [08:00–15:00]
- Horsehead post-mortem. Debt crept up like the lukewarm-water frog (Munger's "24 causes"), in a commodity business. Guy now asks why management takes on debt. [15:00–19:00]
- Judging management means reading ten years of 10-Ks and 10-Qs, then asking questions. Reg FD means anyone can join earnings calls. Order matters: do your reading before hearing management's story. [19:00–29:00]
- Talk businesses, not positions, and share experience rather than advice. [30:00–36:00]
How it maps to RuleOne
Same links as 084: the stock page's EDGAR link is where the 10-K history starts, and a holdings log helps you review debt before it creeps up.
Words to know
- Regulation FD: rule requiring companies to share material information with the public at the same time as analysts.
Try this
Open the latest earnings-call transcript for a stock on /stocks/ and write down one question about debt you'd ask the CEO.
Check yourself
- What was Guy's fifth principle?
Answer
Forgive yourself for your mistakes so that you keep trying.
Short quotes
"This stuff is simple, but it isn't easy." (Guy Spier, ~14:30, auto-transcribed)