Rule #1 weekly scout, 4 Oct 2026
Prices are 2 Oct 2026 closes (Sunday run; nearly unchanged from 3 Oct). Universe 5,774 → 4,602 with XBRL → 270 passed Big Five → 262 valued. 13 in buy range, 68 in alt-methods, 39 on deck, 44 on event watch. Research and screening only, not investment advice. Several facts come from search snippets and aggregators; verify against filings before acting.
Method: Sticker = adj. EPS × (1+g)^10 × min(2g, 10y median P/E) / 1.15^10, MOS = 50%. g = lower of historical growth and analyst growth (FY+2 used as a proxy because 5-year estimates were not found), capped at 15% and cut by judgement where consensus EPS is falling. EPS is adjusted for one-offs. Payback (8y) and Ten Cap here are EPS-based. The screen's FCF-based figures are meaningless for insurers and brokers (float and client cash inflate OCF).
(a) Actionable now (ranked)
| # | Ticker | Price | Adj. Sticker | MOS buy | Payback / Ten Cap | Event | Verdict | Entry / trim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FUTU (ADS) | $102.17 | $182 (EPS $9.5, g 15%) | $91 | $160 / $95 | CSRC fine RMB1.85B (May); mainland clients can't add funds for 2 yrs. Core growth intact (Q2 rev +36%) | ACCUMULATE (starter) | Start ≤$100, add ≤$91; trim ≥$150, sell ≥$182. China-regulatory risk: size small |
| 2 | OPFI (micro-cap, $0.5B) | $5.97 | $17 (EPS $1.30, g 10%) | $8.3 | $16 / $13 | Q2 miss; FY26 adj. EPS guide cut to $1.34–1.51 (LOC rollout and LOLA migration delays) | ACCUMULATE (speculative) | ≤$8 (all price under MOS), add ≤$6; trim ≥$12, sell ≥$17. Subprime credit, bank-partner model |
| 3 | KNSL | $329.72 | $400 (EPS $21.7, g 12%) | $200 | $299 / $217 | E&S pricing softening; 2025 growth reset; combined ratio still 75.5% | WATCH (best quality) | Starter ≤$270, buy ≤$200; trim ≥$400. Price fails Payback and Ten Cap on EPS |
| 4 | PLMR | $126.49 | $147 (EPS $7.44, g 12.5%) | $74 | $105 / $74 | No clear shock; sector cat-rate worries | WATCH | Buy ≤$95 (needs a dip) |
| 5 | INTU | $281.08 | $295 (EPS $16, g 12%) | $147 | $220 / $160 | FY27 guide far below Street (TurboTax, Mailchimp), 17% layoff, AI fear | WATCH | Buy ≤$200; moat doubt unproven |
| 6 | PGR | $210.31 | $211 (EPS $18.1, g 10%) | $105 | $228 / $181 | Margins slipping (Aug CR 89.3); consensus EPS FY27 −10% | WATCH | Accumulate ≤$170; Q3 on 15 Oct |
| – | LULU | $94.46 | $46 | $23 | US comps −9%, brand erosion, co-CEO transition | AVOID | Above Sticker once tariff-refund gain is stripped and FY27 EPS −29% | |
| – | BYD | $67.25 | $52 | $26 | Screen EPS $22.54 includes $1.4B FanDuel gain; real EPS about $7.2 | AVOID | Not cheap (P/E 9 vs 12.4 median) | |
| – | ELA | $12.16 | $5 | $2.6 | Q1 spike in bullion earnings, micro-cap | AVOID | ||
| 7 | ZTO (ADS) | $19.50 | $24.5 (EPS $1.91, g 10%) | $12.2 | n/a (OCF-based $19.4) | Q2 beat (EPS $0.56 vs $0.50, adj. NI +50%) but 2026 volume guide cut to 6–10% growth; JPM downgrade to Neutral ($22) | WATCH | Buy ≤$14, add ≤$12; trim ≥$22, sell ≥$24. Industry price war, China risk |
| – | ARCO | $7.11 | $10.5 (EPS $1.23, g 8%) | $5.2 | n/a | Q2 adj. EPS $0.22 beat; Argentina/Brazil FX and inflation noise; report 8 Oct | WATCH | Buy ≤$5.5; revisit after 8 Oct. Screen's Sticker moved $15.8 → $19.3 |
| – | QFIN (ADS) | $6.46 | ~$1 | Revenue −32%; Q3 profit guide −70%; China regulation | AVOID | Structural. Screen P/E ~1.5 is on trailing USD EPS per ADS ($4.37) that predates the guided profit collapse |
FUTU deep dive: reports/config/FUTU.json and reports/model/FUTU.md. DCF is $162–164 per ADS versus $102 (the engine now reports in USD per ADS). This is consistent with Sticker $182 and means the market prices in a real China haircut. Peer comps (IBKR, SCHW, HOOD, LPLA, RJF) are wide (median-implied $102–$574 per ADS across multiples) and not informative.
Consensus (stockanalysis/MarketBeat): FUTU targets about $100–180 (post-fine); OPFI Hold, $10.50; KNSL Hold, $355; PLMR Buy, $163; INTU Buy, $406; PGR Hold, $232; LULU Hold, $105; BYD Buy, $96; QFIN Reduce, $12.3. Next earnings: PGR 15 Oct; KNSL 22 Oct (some sources 28 Oct); BYD late Oct; PLMR 5 Nov; OPFI early Nov; FUTU ~17 Nov; INTU late Nov; QFIN Nov (screen says 5 Oct).
(b) Watch list, set alerts at (MOS price)
On deck (all tier A unless noted): GOOGL $274 (now $343.5), APP $195 ($268), BOOT $76 ($122), NFLX $48 ($67), FIVE $167 ($221), XPEL $30 ($45), RMD $156 ($219), SMCI $32 ($44), LMAT $43 ($79), PAYC $142 ($221), AX $50 ($89), MSFT $269 ($518), NVDA $119 ($234), AON $236 ($269, tier C). Also in alt-methods and unvetted: DECK ($59 MOS vs $79), ADBE ($269 vs $238 by the screen's Sticker; see 3 Oct deep dive, HOLD), BKNG, EVR, NMIH, ACGL, HTHT, NTES. Only names with imminent earnings need attention: NFLX 16 Oct, GOOGL and RMD 22 Oct, MSFT 7 Oct.
(c) Changes vs last week
Same 2 Oct price date as the 3 Oct run, so no price moves. Differences are from data refreshes: ZTO is new in buy range (it left on-deck; screen Sticker $28.8 → $41.6 after its Q2 EPS update; we haircut to $24.5). No drop-outs. Screen Sticker revisions: QFIN $19.7 → $15.7, ARCO $15.8 → $19.3, PDD $206 → $203, FUTU $198 → $194, HTHT $56.9 → $42.1 (largest cut, check before acting), CLBT $4.2 → $3.1.
(d) Data issues found
- QFIN: the screen now converts CNY to USD per ADS (TTM EPS $4.37, Yahoo TTM to 30 Jun). The resulting P/E ~1.5 is arithmetically right on trailing earnings but misleading: those earnings predate the guided ~70% Q3 profit drop, so the run-rate P/E is far higher. Treat its Sticker as unreliable. FUTU, PDD and ZTO are on the same corrected basis.
- BYD: TTM EPS 22.54 includes the $1.4B after-tax FanDuel sale gain; adjusted EPS about $7.1–7.4. The "PE<5" flag was correct.
- KNSL: TTM EPS 24.64 reconciles to GAAP but includes realized and unrealized gains; operating run-rate about $21–22 (FY26 consensus $21.33).
- LULU: Q2 EPS includes $0.86 of one-off tariff refunds, so TTM $12.15 normalises to about $11.3.
- OPFI: 1y EPS growth 175% is a warrant-liability distortion; $7.9M one-off costs in Q2.
- INTU: includes a $174M investment gain (small). Non-GAAP EPS is $24.27; GAAP $16.46 used.
- PGR: TTM $19.93 is above FY26 consensus $18.10, and the 10y windage hits the 15% cap despite consensus EPS falling.
- ZTO/ARCO: ZTO is CNY converted per ADS; screen's 15% growth is above the cut volume guide, and its Sticker jumped 45% in a day, so treat it as unreliable. ARCO EPS is Yahoo TTM; Argentina hyperinflation accounting adds noise.
- Financials (PGR, KNSL, PLMR, OPFI, FUTU, QFIN): FCF-based Payback and Ten Cap prices are unreliable because OCF includes float and client cash.
- The screener's growth haircut uses history only; analyst estimates are not in the pipeline. Foreign-filer currency and ADR handling was fixed on 4 Oct: figures are now converted to USD per listed ADS, so the earlier currency mismatches no longer apply.
(e) Sources
ZTO/ARCO: ZTO Q2, ZTO analyst moves, ARCO Q2. SEC filings: INTU FY26 8-K, KNSL Q2, PLMR Q2, OPFI Q2, ELA 10-Q. Analysts: stockanalysis.com forecast pages for KNSL, PGR, PLMR, INTU, LULU, BYD. Events: FUTU CSRC fine, Goldman downgrade, QFIN Q2 call, PGR August results, KNSL E&S, LULU Q2, BYD FY25. Prior: 3 Oct deep dive.